1
15
4
37
6
8
7
21
36
11
9
1
21
31
3
33
20
16
14
32
17
9The verdict
Mirror formations, mirror xG (1.50 vs 1.48), mirror xPoints — this was as equitable as football gets on the spreadsheet, and yet the context couldn’t be more lopsided. Wolves, already condemned to the Championship, took the lead through Mateus Mané at 25 minutes only to be hauled back by a VAR-awarded penalty that Antonee Robinson converted right on the stroke of half-time. That swing — goal to conceded in roughly 20 minutes of game-time — defined everything.
Wolves actually carried the bigger attacking threat in open play (0.97 xG vs Fulham’s 0.43) and created three big chances to Fulham’s one, yet the scoreboard stayed level. Bernd Leno was the busier keeper and posted a -0.88 performance rating, suggesting he was fortunate not to concede more. Rob Edwards was booed on his lap of appreciation. The Championship awaits.
How the match unfolded
First half
25’ — GOAL. M. Mane scores for Wolverhampton Wanderers, set up by Hwang Hee-Chan. Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–0 Fulham.
45+3’ — GOAL (penalty). A. Robinson scores for Fulham. Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–1 Fulham.
Second half
46’. Fulham substitution — S. Berge on, Kevin off.
67’. Fulham substitution — Rodrigo Muniz on, R. Jimenez off.
67’. Fulham substitution — A. Iwobi on, J. King off.
72’. Wolverhampton Wanderers substitution — A. Armstrong on, T. Arokodare off.
79’. Fulham substitution — E. Smith Rowe on, H. Wilson off.
79’. Fulham substitution — O. Bobb on, S. Chukwueze off.
79’. Wolverhampton Wanderers substitution — Hwang Hee-Chan on, J. Bellegarde off.
85’. Wolverhampton Wanderers substitution — R. Gomes on, Pedro Lima off.
85’. Wolverhampton Wanderers substitution — D. M. Wolfe on, H. Bueno off.
90+4’. Andre (Wolverhampton Wanderers) is shown a yellow card.
The decisive moment
47’ — Fulham goal by Antonee Robinson
By the numbers
11-13Shots, to . The balance of the game in one line.
The game was played with Fulham seeing the majority of possession (69%–31%). Wolverhampton Wanderers attempted 11 shots (3 on target) to Fulham’s 13 (5 on target). The expected-goals model favoured Wolverhampton Wanderers (1.5–1.48), so the 1–1 scoreline ran against the balance of chances. Wolverhampton Wanderers completed 173 of 250 passes (69% accuracy); Fulham 501 of 580 (86%). Set pieces and discipline: 3–6 on corners, 20–8 on fouls.
The numbers
| Metric | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| Big chances | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.37 | 1.34 |
| Total shots | 11 | 13 |
| Possession % | 31 | 69 |
| Passes | 250 | 580 |
| Corners | 3 | 6 |
The tactical battle
Both sides set up in matching 4-2-3-1 shapes, which produced a chess-match midfield stalemate — Wolves exploited set-pieces for 0.52 xG and dominated open-play territory, but Fulham’s discipline held until a VAR penalty flipped the game’s momentum just before the break.
Player of the match
Antonee Robinson deserved man of the match: his penalty (0.76 xG, the match’s biggest chance) rescued a point that kept Fulham’s faint European hopes mathematically alive for one more week.
Top performances (by xG involvement)
| Player | Team | Shots | xG | Goals | Big chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonee Robinson | Fulham | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 1 |
| Yerson Mosquera | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 1 |
| Rodrigo Gomes | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 1 |
| Adam Armstrong | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 1 |
| Sander Berge | Fulham | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Iwobi | Fulham | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 |
Three things that stood out
- Wolves generated 0.97 xG from open play — more than double Fulham’s 0.43 — yet failed to score a second goal despite three big chances.
- Antonee Robinson’s penalty carried an xG of 0.76, making it the single highest-xG chance of the entire match.
- Bernd Leno posted a -0.88 keeper performance rating, the worst of either side, despite Fulham escaping with a draw.
What happens next
Fulham head into their final game three points behind eighth-place Brentford with an inferior goal difference, meaning European football is effectively gone — and Marco Silva’s future at the club hinges on boardroom talks that could reshape the Cottage this summer.
Cards & substitutions
- 90+4’ Yellow Card — Andre (Wolves)
- 46’ Substitution — S. Berge (Fulham)
- 67’ Substitution — Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham)
- 67’ Substitution — A. Iwobi (Fulham)
- 72’ Substitution — A. Armstrong (Wolves)
- 79’ Substitution — E. Smith Rowe (Fulham)
- 79’ Substitution — O. Bobb (Fulham)
- 79’ Substitution — Hwang Hee-Chan (Wolves)
- 85’ Substitution — R. Gomes (Wolves)
- 85’ Substitution — D. M. Wolfe (Wolves)
Match xG: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.5 — 1.48 Fulham. Result archetype: tactical-chess. xPoints: 1.37 vs 1.34.